Will There Be More Housing Inventory in 2023?

Whether you are a current or prospective homeowner or renter, and regardless if you are considering buying or selling, it is important to know how the current state of the market impacts your daily decisions while living in San Antonio. We understand the importance of providing you with a transparent outlook on the health of the local market so that you can make informed real estate-related decisions. Our blogs are here to provide you with the data to create clarity. Read below to gain valuable market insights and connect with one of our local agents today!

Will There Be More Housing Inventory in 2023?

It is not likely there will be such an influx of inventory in 2023. There are a record number of equity-rich homeowners who bought or refinanced during the past few years who likely have once-in-a-lifetime low mortgage rates that many owners will not want to give up.  Higher financing with a steeper interest rate may not be attractive to homeowners, even with anticipated proceeds from the sale of their current home. Economists at Fannie Mae are calling this the “lock-in effect” and expect this trend to remain in a way that has not occurred in over 40 years. 

“Economists at Fannie Mae expect home sales to plummet [in 2023] to the lowest levels since 2008 before rebounding and helping lead the country out of a brief recession. But the strength of the rebound could be subdued, in large part because so many homeowners will be reluctant to give up the low rates on their existing mortgages,” as reported by Inman News.

To put housing supply into perspective, the following chart zooms out to show the last 40 years. You can see inventory is still historically low.

June is usually when we see new listings peak for the calendar year, followed by the normal seasonal slowdown during the second half of the year. We saw a spike in inventory in September and October of 2022 due to rate fluctuation and shortly after another decline, but with mortgage rates steady around the 6 and 7’s, data analysts don’t expect the same surge of inventory in 2023. It is projected that we will end 2023 with 10% fewer available homes than 2022.

PRO TIP: You haven’t missed your window if you want to sell. With inventory still historically low, listing now will allow you to get the jump on other sellers who might be holding off until after the holidays and the start of the new year.

BOTTOM LINE: Now is the time to talk through your options. Trying to time the market can present challenges. Sit down with a local real estate expert and discuss your home search or home sale goals so you can have the insights you need to make the best possible move forward. Learn how these small bright spots in our cooling market present unique opportunities to buy or sell.

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